View all newsletters
Have the short, sharp Spear's newsletter delivered to your inbox each week
  1. Wealth
  2. Business
June 25, 2015updated 29 Jan 2016 6:48pm

The pollsters couldn't call the election, and they can't call the EU referendum

By Spear's

Why should we trust Ipsos MORI after their dismal performance in May, asks Stephen Hill

‘We Want to Stay in EU, Voters Tell PM’ screamed the headline of the Evening Standard on Friday night’s edition, before anyone knows what the EU deal to be offered by Cameron actually is. This is the latest body for the Yes-vote fifth column, to join the ranks of the CBI, the FT, the unions and the overpaid FTSE 100 CEOs and all their flunky PR advisers and hangers-on.

The headline was based on a poll by Ipsos MORI, who should know the pitfalls of doing things the wrong way round, following their disastrous mis-calling of the general election.

The questions this time round were:

1. ‘The exact wording expected to be on the voting slips in the poll’: sorry, the exact wording expected to be …? The Referendum Bill’s first reading has generated a plethora of amendments already; the second reading is still months away; then the bill must go to the Lords; then the Parliament Act may have to be invoked, and so on. Nobody today has any idea of the exact wording expected.

2. Should the UK remain a member of the EU? Impossible to know until we know the terms.

3. Would you vote now to stay in or get out? Ditto.

4. Are you confident DC will get a good deal for Britain? Please define ‘good’ first…

Content from our partners
Meet the females leading in the FTSE
A cut above: Charles Sanford on why HNW clients choose LGT Wealth Management
How the Thuso Group’s invaluable experience and expertise shaped the Spear’s Schools Index 2024

If you go to the bottom of these futile questions, and add the 12 per cent don’t-knows to those 57 per cent who are not confident that the PM can get an (undefined) ‘good deal’ for Britain, you could be looking at a majority of up to 69 per cent who could want out. Now, what was that headline saying?

Who cares about polls anyway? It’s the result that counts, as Cameron’s victory in the general election showed, much to the discredit of all the pollsters in the UK, who got it plain wrong. Hands up those pollsters who said Cameron would win outright. What, none?

If they can’t get it right in the UK, what fat chance have they got of getting even half-right in the EU – when we know what the question finally is, that is? My own view is that it will be a close call right down to the wire.

Select and enter your email address The short, sharp email newsletter from Spear’s
  • Business owner/co-owner
  • CEO
  • COO
  • CFO
  • CTO
  • Chairperson
  • Non-Exec Director
  • Other C-Suite
  • Managing Director
  • President/Partner
  • Senior Executive/SVP or Corporate VP or equivalent
  • Director or equivalent
  • Group or Senior Manager
  • Head of Department/Function
  • Manager
  • Non-manager
  • Retired
  • Other
Visit our privacy policy for more information about our services, how New Statesman Media Group may use, process and share your personal data, including information on your rights in respect of your personal data and how you can unsubscribe from future marketing communications.
Thank you

Thanks for subscribing.

Websites in our network